What Do You Think Will Happen With UK EV Quotas?

All Porsche Macan Electric Related Discussion
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Nuclear Nick
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Post by Nuclear Nick »

^^^^^ Me too! Takes all sorts I suppose..........
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PJV997
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Post by PJV997 »

Moriarty wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 1:21 pm I think the UK government’s (expensive) mistake here is using legislation to force early adoption of a new electrical technology onto the mass market. The problem is that the mass market is not ready for this product and, considering previous new electrical technologies, there is a high risk that this technology will soon be superseded by better solutions. In any event the product is too expensive at this point in time to become mass market.

Consider if we had been forced to adopt plasma TVs, betamax video recorders, super audio CD players, laserdisc video players, fax machines, etc. These were expensive mistakes for the early adopters - though none as expensive as a car. And it isn’t as though the UK market has the power to dictate the choice of auto technology for the world and ensure global mass market adoption for this particular solution that the UK government has selected.

I believe the wise approach here is to wait ten years and see what the auto market is like then. Let the early adopters take all the risk and pay the premium for beta testing new technology. By the time a mass market solution has been developed the prices will be much more reasonable and the issues will have been ironed out.

The government will have to back down on this legislation as I think the data shows it has already failed and the market for new BEVs of the current type has topped-out at 15% (even with the massive taxpayer subsidies).
Agree very much with this.

One question I have - was the legislation for EV sales quotas and corresponding fines put in place when the UK had the 2030 target for banning sales of ICE vehicles?

If the answer is yes, the timescales for the quotas makes a bit more sense, albeit I disagree with the approach. And now the deadline for ICE ban has been deferred, it would make sense to at least defer the quota system.
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Moriarty
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Post by Moriarty »

PJV997 wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 9:23 am
Moriarty wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 1:21 pm I think the UK government’s (expensive) mistake here is using legislation to force early adoption of a new electrical technology onto the mass market. The problem is that the mass market is not ready for this product and, considering previous new electrical technologies, there is a high risk that this technology will soon be superseded by better solutions. In any event the product is too expensive at this point in time to become mass market.

Consider if we had been forced to adopt plasma TVs, betamax video recorders, super audio CD players, laserdisc video players, fax machines, etc. These were expensive mistakes for the early adopters - though none as expensive as a car. And it isn’t as though the UK market has the power to dictate the choice of auto technology for the world and ensure global mass market adoption for this particular solution that the UK government has selected.

I believe the wise approach here is to wait ten years and see what the auto market is like then. Let the early adopters take all the risk and pay the premium for beta testing new technology. By the time a mass market solution has been developed the prices will be much more reasonable and the issues will have been ironed out.

The government will have to back down on this legislation as I think the data shows it has already failed and the market for new BEVs of the current type has topped-out at 15% (even with the massive taxpayer subsidies).
Agree very much with this.

One question I have - was the legislation for EV sales quotas and corresponding fines put in place when the UK had the 2030 target for banning sales of ICE vehicles?

If the answer is yes, the timescales for the quotas makes a bit more sense, albeit I disagree with the approach. And now the deadline for ICE ban has been deferred, it would make sense to at least defer the quota system.
Yes, the zero emission car quota is the same law you are referring to - the one that originally had 100% quota for 2030. The 100% conversion date has since been moved back to 2035 but all the other dates stayed the same. So 22% of new car sales must be zero emission cars (i.e. full battery EVs) for 2024, 28% for 2025, 33% for 2026…rising to 80% for 2029. Then it will remain at 80% until 2034 before rising to 100%.

I think all the news hysteria about delaying the ICE and hybrid ban to 2035 was rather trivial. It will already be near impossible to buy a non-EV car well before that. If manufacturers can only sell 20% non-EVs in 2029, how long will the waiting list be for an ICE car with so little supply? Maybe if you order an ICE car in 2029 there’s a chance you’ll get a slot by 2034, perhaps. Depends how many people are trying to buy one. If the government doesn’t back down then my guess is that waiting lists for ICE cars will become very long from around 2027.

We might have to adapt the way Cuba did - learn to keep our ICE cars on the road for decades, since only the used market will be available. Or learn to love EVs.
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Pythongrün
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Post by Pythongrün »

Neil1911 wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:52 pm
Pythongrün wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:24 pm I have a Tesla and it’s fantastic and has given me zero problems unlike every Porsche I’ve ever owned :D

That said I would not want to own one outright, so it’s leased through a salary sacrifice scheme. I also wouldn’t want to have to rely on public charging as it’s expensive, often unreliable and often busy. This takes into account that Tesla’s benefit from the supercharger network. I’ve only used that 3 times in 18 months. Home charging works very well indeed, but not everyone can have this.

I also have a small ICE vehicle in the form of a 0.9 Renault Captur which does all the local journeys including supermarket runs to save the other two.

BEV’s need a real shake up which includes manufacturers offering longer battery warranties to give the market confidence. I know a few Tesla owners who are now paying out £15-25K for new battery packs on 9 year old cars and that makes me feel sick.
An ICE car for local runs to save the EV? REALLY??? :shock:
The Captur saves the Tesla and Macan from damage at the supermarket and local gym, but is also used for taking our dogs out and about as well as runs to the tip. I also get to keep my NCB given Tesla is leased.

It works for us.
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Col Lamb
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Post by Col Lamb »

Pythongrün wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 6:51 pm
Neil1911 wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:52 pm
Pythongrün wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:24 pm I have a Tesla and it’s fantastic and has given me zero problems unlike every Porsche I’ve ever owned :D

That said I would not want to own one outright, so it’s leased through a salary sacrifice scheme. I also wouldn’t want to have to rely on public charging as it’s expensive, often unreliable and often busy. This takes into account that Tesla’s benefit from the supercharger network. I’ve only used that 3 times in 18 months. Home charging works very well indeed, but not everyone can have this.

I also have a small ICE vehicle in the form of a 0.9 Renault Captur which does all the local journeys including supermarket runs to save the other two.

BEV’s need a real shake up which includes manufacturers offering longer battery warranties to give the market confidence. I know a few Tesla owners who are now paying out £15-25K for new battery packs on 9 year old cars and that makes me feel sick.
An ICE car for local runs to save the EV? REALLY??? :shock:
The Captur saves the Tesla and Macan from damage at the supermarket and local gym, but is also used for taking our dogs out and about as well as runs to the tip. I also get to keep my NCB given Tesla is leased.

It works for us.
Our one car, the Macan gets used for everything, to us it’s a car not a work of art.

Dog, supermarket, beach, crowded car parks, narrow lanes only thing out of bounds is the gym which are avtotal waste of time for old geezers like me.

Do you not think that having a third car is a needless waste of planet resources in its manufacture and limited usage?
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Post by 2japs »

Our one car, the Macan gets used for everything, to us it’s a car not a work of art.

Dog, supermarket, beach, crowded car parks, narrow lanes only thing out of bounds is the gym which are avtotal waste of time for old geezers like me.

I’m with you here and will add golf club 👍
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andreas
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Post by andreas »

Col Lamb wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 7:34 pm
Dog, supermarket, beach, crowded car parks, narrow lanes only thing out of bounds is the gym which are avtotal waste of time for old geezers like me.
I'm probably older than you, but I go to the gym and it certainly isn't a waste of time!

I take my old Freelander though, as parking is tricky.
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Pythongrün
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Post by Pythongrün »

Col Lamb wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 7:34 pm
Pythongrün wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 6:51 pm
Neil1911 wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:52 pm
An ICE car for local runs to save the EV? REALLY??? :shock:
The Captur saves the Tesla and Macan from damage at the supermarket and local gym, but is also used for taking our dogs out and about as well as runs to the tip. I also get to keep my NCB given Tesla is leased.

It works for us.
Our one car, the Macan gets used for everything, to us it’s a car not a work of art.

Dog, supermarket, beach, crowded car parks, narrow lanes only thing out of bounds is the gym which are avtotal waste of time for old geezers like me.

Do you not think that having a third car is a needless waste of planet resources in its manufacture and limited usage?
I think there’s bigger issues than me bobbing around in a 0.9 litre car for a few miles a week. If any of us really gave a 💩 about the planet we’d all sell our Macan’s even though the Tesla isn’t probably much ‘greener’ overall anyway.

When the Tesla goes next year I’ll just be using the Captur most of the time as I’m not replacing it.
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