Electric??

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mickmichael
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Post by mickmichael » Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:45 pm

Hi

With the rapid development of Electric Vehicles and ever-increasing charge millage, I see 500 or even 800 miles a charge coming along soon with quicker charge times and far more chargers. Will this result in the collapse in retail values of your Gas Guzzling Tanks, with high road tax, and crazy service costs? along with negative looks from your neighbors as the 'environmentalists' gain more hold?

mike

bennachie
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Post by bennachie » Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:59 pm

500 to 800? Not in the foreseeable. Battery tech is still in its infancy. The hallowed solid state battery is still some way off. Realistically liquid replace ment e-fuel is/will be the future - that or hydrogen. BEV is a blind alley unlees you are prepared to own a five tonne bus sized vehicle to cruise the highways and byways..........
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davlewis
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Post by davlewis » Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:09 pm

bennachie wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:59 pm
500 to 800? Not in the foreseeable. Battery tech is still in its infancy. The hallowed solid state battery is still some way off. Realistically liquid replace ment e-fuel is/will be the future - that or hydrogen. BEV is a blind alley unlees you are prepared to own a five tonne bus sized vehicle to cruise the highways and byways..........
Lucid have a 520 mile range
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Bluesnose1812
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Post by Bluesnose1812 » Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:25 pm

davlewis wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:09 pm
bennachie wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:59 pm
500 to 800? Not in the foreseeable. Battery tech is still in its infancy. The hallowed solid state battery is still some way off. Realistically liquid replace ment e-fuel is/will be the future - that or hydrogen. BEV is a blind alley unlees you are prepared to own a five tonne bus sized vehicle to cruise the highways and byways..........
Lucid have a 520 mile range
I doubt it when it's -10 and the car is fully loaded. EVs are selling well in the sunshine states like california and florida but until they sell in illinois, New York and New England and become the power source of choice, range fear will prevail. Hydrogen is the future.
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Madelvic
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Post by Madelvic » Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:29 pm

Electric cars are expensive; I've been shopping for one recently (for a pal) and they start at £40k with a few exceptions (he bought an MG in the end at £25k)

As and when there is a stepped change in range and a vast improvement in recharging capability I think all it will do will kill the value in second hand electric cars

As for the Lucid Air, its $170k and will it really do 520 miles? One can (and I have) run a petrol car on fumes as you can rely on refuelling. I personally absolutely would not in an electric car.

The vast majority will continue to drive round in 'bangers'. I bought a Fiat Panda before Christmas for £100 less than the cost of a HEADLAMP for my Macan. It's been an eyeopener realising how many cars worth £2000-ish are on the road.

The forecast is 195 million electric cars by 2030 out of 1.3billion on the road so there will still be a huge number of non-electric cars out there.

Personally I think hydrogen has more of a future, the EU has mandated hydrogen refuelling every 150km on every trunk road in every member state by 2025.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/indu ... ctric-cars

efuels will play there part too and gives us Petrolheads some hope.

The well-healed will buy electric/hydrogen. Many less fortunate will continue in ULEZ compliant petrol 'runaround' cars. Petrolheads will depend on efuels for their sports cars. Not sure where that leaves the Macan though?
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pmg
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Post by pmg » Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:49 pm

mickmichael wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:45 pm
Hi

With the rapid development of Electric Vehicles and ever-increasing charge millage, I see 500 or even 800 miles a charge coming along soon with quicker charge times and far more chargers. Will this result in the collapse in retail values of your Gas Guzzling Tanks, with high road tax, and crazy service costs? along with negative looks from your neighbors as the 'environmentalists' gain more hold?

mike
Yes, I agree with the dangers here for long term petrol SUV ownership.

A lot will depend on the rollout of chargers v demand and also whether a Government desperate for tax revenue hikes the tax taken from remaining ICE vehicles.

Hydrogen has the problem of the adequate number of filling stations in the absence of existing users and few buyers until stations are in place but few prepared to commit capital to stations until demand
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BanZ
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Post by BanZ » Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:55 pm

EV is here to stay whether petrolheads like it or not. There is a huge amount of financial investment behind it and you only have to look at the valuations for Tesla, Nio etc to see the market is behind them. In terms of demand Tesla as an example can’t produce cars as fast as customer demand, add in government incentives for EV and penalties/taxes for petrol cars plus legislation to eventually reduce/phase out production and you can see EV becoming dominant for new car sales.

For the drawbacks - how many people really do regular 200 mile round trips where range will be a problem? Several cars are ‘claiming’ 250+mile range and the improvements will come so that 350+ will be possible more commonly which puts it in the same range as a Macan. You have to also assume that charging infrastructure will continue to improve as well as become more widely available if a large portion of new car sales switch to EV.

GTB
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Post by GTB » Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:32 pm

Happy New Year All,

I have stated before on this forum, EV's are not the single silver bullet and ICE cars will be around and for sale far longer than Gov targets thats for sure.
Yes battery technolodgy is improving, but EV is not the solution to everything, life expectancy of the batteries, disposal and replacement costs etc plus colder temperatures decline in range. Hydrogen without doubt a part to play and I already posted detail on developemnt and production of the first efuels, so without doubt those liqued efuels with identical storage, distribution, dispensing features and critically no adaptation of an existing ICE engine will be very attractive.

Other critical item that supporters of EV never seem to wish to debate is at this time EV buyers are gaining financial incentives, although those have been decreasing recently, but they do not pay any fuel duty, only the extra electricity costs at home or on the network of fast chargers.

However in fiscal year 2020/21 the fuel tax duty received by HMRC was some £20.9 Billion down from £27.99 Billion in the previous year, but remember Initial Covid lockdown had a lot to do with that.

Does any serious EV purchaser or promotor think the Government of the day will just let that tax duty dwindle to nothing as people move to EV? of course not those figures are serious amounts of cash for any Government to balance the books or use for transport improvements, Duty on EV users will happen for sure and lets be honest with each other, if you could put ordinary water in a car as a fuel and that appropriate engine can propel you from a to b we would pay bloody tax on it.

We live in a multi everything world and transport types will be exactly that a multi fuel or EV or Hydrogen, one solution it certainly wont be. I will be happy with my ICE engine cars on my drive, my choice and they are not illegal nor will they be.

GTB

Jon A
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Post by Jon A » Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:57 pm

Can’t help thinking the OP was a bit of click bait.
However I think everyone has a good point to make here, it will be a moving feast I think for some years as infrastructure, battery technology and ultimately cost of production settles down.
On a slightly different note, by the time the steel and component production are factored in, together with the production of electricity (and battery components), the carbon footprint of an EV is only around 5% less than equivalent ICE over first four years 😳
Finally, it strikes me that buying a second hand EV would not be for the faint hearted…
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wilko
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Post by wilko » Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:04 pm

Hydrogens a problem as it’s only readily available by splitting water and the only way you can store enough is at very high pressures, and it’s a tiny molecule, so it’s hard to contain (at high pressures) and leaks away.

It makes sense to use surplus wind or solar (if we had a surplus) to split water to give hydrogen for short term storage to level out the peaks and troughs of demand on the grid, to reduce gas use age, but no matter what we do with our current electricity production, the only technologies that can react quick enough to the fluctuations in demand are based on burning fossil fuels (though hydrogen use could reduce the need)

In vehicles, there’s a real simple solution and bmw cam up with it years ago. I3 range extender.
So when you’re doing 70-80 on the motorway, you’re using an average of 40-60hp depending on vehicle size/weight. So a powerful electric motor with a 100-150 mile range, with a small 40-60hp generator with a 3-4 gallon fuel tank, would see you running on electric power all the time apart from on long journeys when you either can’t charge quickly or can’t be bothered. At this point you have 100-150 miles of petrol range, and chances are you’re on a motorway away from populated areas.

Intelligent sat nav could have the vehicle charging on open stretches of motorway to use electric in populated areas.

Powerful electric motor gives you performance and small petrol generator removes range anxiety, and weight penalty of most of the current hybrid drivetrains, and long range electric drivetrains.

How often do people drive more than 100-150 miles. A handful of times a year at most.
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